Forex Outlook: Week Beginning 19th August 2019

All weekly Forex analysis are high-level and sets the week ahead. However markets change due to news and events so this may evolve. I do Monthly, weekly and daily scans every week for context. Higher TF help to guide the lower so as to give an indication or hint as to the direction of the market and potential entry points. I try to focus on price action and use indicators secondarily for probability of reversals or change in market sentiment.

Charts shown do not necessarily mean that I will be entering them, however I will observe for potential opportunities as they’re either a setup being played or about to be played.

As per our disclaimer – This is not financial advice but for educational purpose

21 SMA = RED
55 SMA = ORANGE
200 SMA = GOLD
Bollinger Bands = PURPLE
MACD 21/55 (prefer to use in non-trending market)

News

AUDCHF – Bearish

Overall trend is down, but there may be potential opportunities to catch some pips before further decline or reversal – I’ll look for shorts at resistance area if price retraces.

MN1: Price reacting to support area from 2015
WK1: Price strongly rejected support twice
WK1: Price closes inside prior candle after long lower shadow which I see as bullish
WK1: Bottom of Bollinger Band as additional support zone confirmation
D1: Price consolidating at low
D1: MACD seems over extended and about to cross over signal line potential bullish indication
D1: Expect price to pull back up to resistance before further decline
H4: Double bottom formed followed by higher low
H4: Price above bullish 21/55 SMA Golden cross – I expect price to use this as support
H4: MACD ascending toward 0 line whilst above signal

GBPUSD – Bearish

Overall trend is down, but see potential opportunity to catch some retracement points before further decline. I’ll look for shorts at resistance areas

MN1: Doji formed at potential support
MN1: Price pulled back to 38.2 fib level (between swing high/low) and the 21 SMA previously, so may see similar pullback to 61.8 before further drop
WK1: Price gapped up last week so would consider current pattern bullish engulfing at support area
WK1: Price at bottom of Bollinger Band as additional support zone confirmation
WK1: Price may look to find monthly retracement area as resistance mentioned above before further decline
D1: MACD appears over extended and about to cross over signal line potential bullish indication
D1: Price risen into resistance area (which is also MN1 and WK1 Pivot Point) and has been rejected – Interesting thing is that previous day rejection was much more forceful but price continues to progress up. Someone building position? Let’s see.
H4: Price ascending with higher highs and higher lows
H4: Price currently at resistance zone with bearish candle pattern
H4: Price above 21/55 SMAs with potential bullish golden cross approaching
H4: Price may pull back to golden cross before ascending
H4: MACD line above signal and ascending – bullish indication
H4: Wait to see if there is a break towards next resistance or rejection for further decline

USDJPY – Bearish

Overall trend is down, but there may be potential opportunities to catch some pips before further decline or reversal – I’ll look for shorts at resistance area if price retraces.

MN1: Support zone found at Monthly lows touched around 5 times
WK1: Week closed forming bullish piercing line candle stick pattern
WK1: Bottom of Bollinger Band as additional support zone confirmation
WK1: Price reacting to ascending support since 2012
D1: MACD beginning to turn bullish
D1: Strong bullish engulfing pattern as Weekly S1 Pivot
D1: Price retraced 50% of bullish candle
D1: Approaching short term resistance, however based on HTF action, I expect some trouble before push above – No action to until confirmation
H4: Price retraced to weekly Pivot Point
H4: Price then retraced to 21/55 SMA Golden cross and supported
H4: MACD has crossed signal and appearing more bullish